Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are for or against the idea but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
